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Betting basics · 11 of 36
Implied probability
In one line: The chance a price suggests. A price of -150 implies a 60% chance before the book's margin is taken out.
Worked example
A -150 price implies 150 divided by 250, or 60.0%. A +130 price implies 100 divided by 230, or 43.5%. Together they add to 103.5%. The extra 3.5 points is the margin the book builds in.
Illustrative prices, not a live quote.
What it is
Implied probability is the chance a price suggests. For a plus price, divide 100 by the plus number plus 100. +150 gives 100 divided by 250, or 40%. For a minus price, divide the number without its sign by that number plus 100. -150 gives 150 divided by 250, or 60%.
The figure includes the book's margin, so it is the chance the price suggests, not the true chance of the result.
How to read it
A higher implied chance means a shorter price and a bigger favorite. Add the implied chances of both sides of one market. If the total is 100%, there is no margin in those two prices. If it is above 100%, the extra is the margin.
How it shows in Antic
The Odds Converter in Calculators shows the implied probability for any American price, to two decimal places.
Edge's Positive EV tool compares each price's implied chance with Antic's estimated fair chance, built from several of the most efficient books and exchanges. A price is +EV when its implied chance is lower than the fair chance.
Common mistakes
Reading the implied chance as the true chance. A -150 price implies 60%, but that number carries the book's margin and is not a forecast of the game.
Adding the two sides of a market and calling the total 100%. Two sides of one market usually add up to more than 100%.