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Positive EV · Antic Pro
Positive EV: prices that pay more than they should
Every book's price next to a fair price worked out from the market, with the gap as EV and the age of each number.
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What it finds
A positive-EV bet pays more than its fair chance of winning says it should. Antic works out a fair price for each side from the market itself, with the books' margin taken out, and lists every price at your books that pays more than that.
What each row shows
- EV
- How much more the price pays than the fair line, as a percentage of the stake.
- Fair
- The fair price and win chance with the books' margin taken out, and how confident the estimate is.
- Book
- The book paying this price, when its feed last updated, and whether it is the best price anywhere.
- Limit
- The most the book says it will take on this bet. Blank when the book doesn't say.
- Stake
- Kelly-sized from your bankroll, never above a cap you set for a book that limits you.
Worked example
The strongest example in Antic's cached prices at the last refresh, with the time the prices were read and each book's feed age. Prices move; the times say how old they are.
No price was paying above its fair line at a book with a fresh feed at the last refresh. The tool lists them as they appear; this page checks again every minute.
Expected value calculatorIllustrative example: round numbers, not a live price
Say the market's fair chance for a side is 50% once the books' margin is taken out (fair odds of +100), and one book pays +110.
- Fair chance
- 50.0%
- What +110 needs to break even
- 47.6%
- The book pays
- +110
Expected value on $100
+$5.00 (+5.0%)
0.50 × $110 won − 0.50 × $100 lost = +$5.00
Half the time this bet still loses the $100. The edge is an average over many bets like it.
How the number works
What the number means, what goes into it, how fresh it is and what it can't tell you. More on every number in how Antic's numbers work.
What it means
EV is how much a price pays above its fair chance, per dollar staked, as an average over many bets like it. +5% means about $5 back on average for every $100 staked; it does not mean this bet wins.
What goes in
- The live price at each book you use
- A fair chance for the side, estimated from several of the most efficient books and exchanges, chosen for each kind of market, with their margin removed
- A book is never judged against its own price
How fresh it is
Each row shows when its book last sent prices. A book whose feed is stale is left out of the fair price and out of the list, and a fair price needs enough books behind it before a row is shown. When you tap a price, Antic checks it again before it opens the book and tells you if it moved.
What it can't tell you
The fair price is an estimate, not a price you can bet. Edges that look too big to be true are usually a stale or mismatched price, so they are held back. Any single bet can lose, and books limit accounts that win.
The math, worked through
The standard expected value formulas, and one example worked through.
Formulas
- Implied probability
- +B: 100 ÷ (B + 100)−A: A ÷ (A + 100)
- How often the bet has to win to break even. +B and −A are American odds, like +120 and −140.
- Winnings on a stake S
- +B: S × B ÷ 100−A: S × 100 ÷ A
- Expected value
- EV = p × winnings − (1 − p) × S
- p is the bet's fair chance of winning.
- It's +EV when
- p > the price's implied probability
Illustrative example: round numbers, not a live price
Worked example
Say a side's fair chance of winning is 60%, which is fair odds of −150. A book offers −140.
Break-even chance at −140: under 60%, so it's +EV
140 ÷ (140 + 100) = 58.33%
Winnings on a $140 bet
$140 × 100 ÷ 140 = $100.00
Expected value on $140
+$4.00 (+2.86%)
0.60 × $100 − 0.40 × $140 = +$4.00
An average over many bets like it. This one still loses the $140 four times in ten.
The formulas are textbook. Antic's own fair prices are worked out on its servers, and the exact recipe stays private. Try your own numbers in the free expected value calculator.
The catch. Good prices move fast, and books limit accounts that win. Any single bet can lose; the edge shows up over hundreds of bets. Antic never places bets.
How to use Positive EV
Step 1: Pick a row: the green figure is the edge over the fair price.
Step 2: Check the book's limit and how fresh its feed is.
Step 3: Tap the price. Antic rechecks it, tells you if it moved, then opens the book.
Open it in the web app or the iPhone app. Antic finds the price; you place any bet yourself, at your own book.
Questions
Does a +EV bet win more often?
Not necessarily. It pays more than its chance is worth. A +EV underdog still loses most of the time; the edge shows up as an average over hundreds of bets.
Where does the fair price come from?
From the market itself: several of the most efficient books and exchanges for that kind of market, with their margin taken out. We keep the exact recipe private, but every row shows the fair price and how fresh the prices behind it are.
Will my book let me keep betting?
Maybe not. Books limit accounts that win. Each row shows the book's reported limit when it publishes one, and you can cap stakes per book.
Does Antic place the bet?
No. Antic never takes or places bets. Tapping a price rechecks it and opens the book; you place the bet there, or not at all.
Get Positive EV with Antic Pro
7 days free, then $14.99/month or $149.99/year. Every tool, on iPhone and the web, with one account.
Antic is 18+. Betting is 21+ in most states. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Antic never places bets; opening a book is not a bet.