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Betting basics · 14 of 36
Expected value
In one line: What a bet is worth on average if its price is right. A +EV price pays more than the fair price.
Worked example
The Expected Value calculator opens on +120, a 48% true chance and a $100 stake. EV is 0.48 times 2.20, minus 1, which is 0.056, or +5.6%. Expected profit is $100 times 0.056, or $5.60. Fair odds for 48% are +108, so +120 pays more than the fair price.
Illustrative prices, not a live quote.
What it is
Expected value, or EV, is what a bet is worth on average if its price is right. It is the chance you win times what you win, minus the chance you lose times what you risk.
A +EV price pays more than the fair price, and a -EV price pays less. One bet can still lose, because EV is an average over many bets.
How to read it
EV is shown as a percent of the stake. +5% means a $100 bet is worth $5 on average, if the fair chance is right. Antic treats an edge of 2% or more as strong, and 5% or more as hot.
EV depends on the fair chance. If the fair chance is wrong, the EV is wrong too.
How it shows in Antic
Positive EV (+EV) is one of Edge's tools. Each card shows the edge as a green percent, the best price with its book, and a FAIR price when Antic has one.
The Expected Value calculator takes your odds, a true chance and a stake, then shows EV, expected profit and fair odds. You can set your minimum EV in Betting settings.
Common mistakes
Judging a bet by one result. A +EV bet can lose, and the average shows up over many bets, not one ticket.
Trusting the EV without checking the fair chance behind it. An EV is only as good as that fair chance.