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Arbitrage · Antic Pro
Arbitrage: every side covered, at a profit
Two books disagree enough that betting every side returns more than you staked. Antic shows the stakes and rechecks the prices.
7 days free, then $14.99/month or $149.99/year. Cancel any time. One account works on iPhone and the web.
What it finds
When the best price on each side comes from different books, the implied chances can add up to less than 100%. Bet every side at the right stakes and the return is the same whichever side wins, as long as every bet goes in at those prices.
What each row shows
- Profit
- The return either way, as a percentage of the total stake.
- Bets to place
- Each leg's book, price, stake, reported limit and feed age.
- On $X
- The profit in dollars on your total stake.
- Max stake
- The largest total every book's reported limit (and your own caps) allows. Blank when a book doesn't report one.
Worked example
The strongest example in Antic's cached prices at the last refresh, with the time the prices were read and each book's feed age. Prices move; the times say how old they are.
No arbitrage with every book's feed up to date was open at the last refresh. The tool lists them as they appear; this page checks again every minute.
Arbitrage calculatorHow the number works
What the number means, what goes into it, how fresh it is and what it can't tell you. More on every number in how Antic's numbers work.
What it means
Profit % is what comes back either way, minus what you staked, as a share of the total stake. The stake on each side is the total times that side's implied chance, divided by the sum of the implied chances.
What goes in
- The best price on each side, at different books
- Your total stake (and any per-book caps you set)
- Each book's reported limit, when it publishes one
How fresh it is
Every leg shows when its book last sent prices, and an arbitrage is only listed while every leg's feed is fresh. When you tap a price, Antic checks it again before it opens the book and tells you if it moved.
What it can't tell you
The profit holds only if every leg is placed at the prices shown. Arbs close within minutes, books can cut limits or void bets, and a limit left blank means the book doesn't say.
The math, worked through
The standard arbitrage formulas, and one example worked through.
Formulas
- Implied probability
- +B: 100 ÷ (B + 100)−A: A ÷ (A + 100)
- +B and −A are American odds, like +120 and −115.
- It's an arbitrage when
- implied A + implied B < 100%
- A and B are the two sides, each at the book paying the most for it.
- Stake on each side
- total × its implied ÷ (implied A + implied B)
- Return, whichever side wins
- total ÷ (implied A + implied B)
- The profit is the return minus the total staked.
Illustrative example: round numbers, not a live price
Worked example
Team A is −115 at one book and Team B is +120 at another. You stake $100 in all.
Implied probabilities
115 ÷ (115 + 100) = 53.49%100 ÷ (120 + 100) = 45.45%
Add them: under 100% is an arbitrage
53.49% + 45.45% = 98.94%
Split the $100
$100 × 53.49% ÷ 98.94% = $54.06 on Team A$100 × 45.45% ÷ 98.94% = $45.94 on Team B
The return
$100 ÷ 98.94% = $101.07
Profit, whichever team wins
+$1.07 (1.07%)
$101.07 − $100 = +$1.07
$54.06 at −115 and $45.94 at +120 each return $101.07, as long as both bets are placed at these prices.
The formulas are textbook. Antic's own fair prices are worked out on its servers, and the exact recipe stays private. Try your own numbers in the free arbitrage calculator.
The catch. Arbs close within minutes. Books can cut limits or void bets they see as arbitrage. The profit only holds once both bets are placed at these prices. Antic never places bets.
How to use Arbitrage
Step 1: Set your total stake.
Step 2: Place each leg at the amount shown, starting with the one most likely to move.
Step 3: Collect the same payout whichever side wins.
Open it in the web app or the iPhone app. Antic finds the price; you place any bet yourself, at your own book.
Questions
Is arbitrage risk-free?
Only if every leg goes in at the price shown. If one price moves before you place it, you are left with a normal bet. Place the leg most likely to move first.
Why are most arbs small?
Books copy each other's prices quickly, so real gaps are usually a percent or two and close fast. A very large one is often a stale price.
How much can I put on one?
Max stake is the largest total every book's reported limit allows. When a book doesn't report a limit, the field is blank rather than a guess.
Does Antic place the bets?
No. Antic shows the stakes and opens each book; you place each bet yourself.
Get Arbitrage with Antic Pro
7 days free, then $14.99/month or $149.99/year. Every tool, on iPhone and the web, with one account.
Antic is 18+. Betting is 21+ in most states. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Antic never places bets; opening a book is not a bet.