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Betting basics · 18 of 36
Arbitrage
In one line: Prices on every outcome at different books that lock in a profit whatever the result, before limits and fees.
Worked example
The Arbitrage calculator opens on +105 and +102 with a $100 total stake. The implied chances are 100 divided by 205, or 48.78%, and 100 divided by 202, or 49.50%. Together they add to 98.29%. Stake $49.63 on the +105 side and $50.37 on the +102 side. Either way you get back about $101.74, a profit of about $1.74.
Illustrative prices, not a live quote.
What it is
An arbitrage is a set of best prices on every outcome, at different books, that adds up to less than 100%. Betting each outcome in the right amounts gives the same profit whichever side wins.
On paper, that profit is locked in before limits and fees. In practice, prices move, books cap stakes and fees take a cut, so the profit can shrink or disappear.
How to read it
Add the implied chances of the best price on each outcome. Below 100% is an arbitrage. The return before fees is 100 divided by that total, minus 1; at 98.29% it is 1.74%. Stakes are split so each side pays the same amount.
A very large return is a warning sign. Antic's own guidance is that a very large profit is usually a stale or wrong line, so check that both prices are live first.
How it shows in Antic
The Arbitrage list in Edge shows the stake for each side, the profit on your total stake and the return as a percent. Some legs also show a +EV pill when that side is +EV against the fair price.
The Arbitrage calculator splits a total stake across two prices and shows the return, each stake, the payout either way and the profit.
Common mistakes
Forgetting the clock. Arbitrages close in minutes, so the second side can move before you place it.
Ignoring limits. A book can cap a stake, so the sides may not fill at the sizes you planned.