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In Antic · 25 of 36
Win probability
In one line: The chance a team wins from the state of the game right now. It moves with every play.
On this page
Worked example
The home team's chance is 50% before a play and 65% after it, a 15-point swing for the home team. The away team's chance falls from 50% to 35%, since 65% + 35% = 100%.
Illustrative prices, not a live quote.
What it means
Win probability is a team's chance of winning from the game as it stands: the score, the clock and everything that has happened so far.
The two teams' chances add up to 100%, so a gain for one team is a loss for the other.
How it moves
It is recorded after every play, so it moves with every play. A turnover or a score can move it a lot, while a short gain may barely move it.
The change from one play to the next is the swing. Antic uses swings to credit players in the Antic Rating and to build the game rating.
Where you see it
Under the scoreboard, a thin bar called the momentum strip splits in the two team colors to show the home team's chance.
The win probability chart lets you drag across the game to read both teams' chances at any point.
What it does not mean
Win probability describes the game as it stands. It is not a forecast of the final result, and a team at 90% can still lose.